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JGB TECHS

(M2) Correction Extends

US STOCKS

Late Session Rebound

AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS

(M2) Corrective Cycle Remains In Play

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-- Updated: May 24, 2018
            JUN  JUL   AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC   JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
M3 (y/y
rate)       5.0  4.5   5.0   5.2   5.0   4.9   4.6   4.6   4.2   3.7
M3 (3-mth
moving
avg)        4.9  4.8   4.8   4.9   5.1   5.0   4.8   4.7   4.4   4.2
HICP (y/y)  1.3  1.3   1.5   1.5   1.4   1.5   1.4   1.3   1.1   1.3   1.2
SA jobless
rate        9.1  9.0   9.0   8.9   8.8   8.7   8.6   8.6   8.5   8.5
Retail
Sales
(m/m)       0.3  0.0  -0.2   1.0  -1.1   2.0  -1.1  -0.3   0.3   0.1
PPI (y/y)   2.4  2.0   2.5   2.9   2.5   2.8   2.2   1.5   1.6   2.1
Industry
Output(wda
y/y)        2.9  3.7   4.2   4.1   2.7   4.7   5.2   3.7   2.9   3.0
SA Trade
Balance (E  21.  17.
Bln)          3    5  20.9  23.8  19.2  22.0  23.8  19.9  21.0  21.2
SA Current  24.  34.
Account       5    8  41.8  39.2  35.1  36.5  34.3  39.7  36.8  32.0
Economic    110  110  111.  112.  113.  114.  115.  115.  114.  112.  112.
Morale       .5   .9     5     9     5     4     3     1     4     7     7
Industry
Morale      4.9  5.1   5.8   7.7   8.5   9.1   9.6   9.8   8.8   7.0   7.1
Consumer    -1.  -1.
Morale        3    7  -1.5  -1.2  -1.1   0.0   0.5   1.4   0.1   0.1   0.4
            57.  56.                                                        55.5
PMI (mfg)     4    6  57.4  58.1  58.5  60.1  60.6  59.6  58.6  56.6  56.2     p
            55.  55.                                                        53.9
PMI (svc)     4    4  54.7  55.8  55.0  56.2  56.6  58.0  57.1  54.9  54.7     p
                3Q15  4Q15  1Q16  2Q16  3Q16  4Q16  1Q17  2Q17  3Q17  4Q17  1Q18
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
real GDP (y/y)   1.6   2.0   1.7   1.6   1.7   1.9   2.0   2.4   2.7   2.8  2.5p
Labour Costs
(y/y)            1.1   1.3   1.7   1.1   1.4   1.6   1.5   1.8   1.6   1.5
Employment
(q/q)            0.3   0.3   0.3   0.4   0.3   0.4   0.5   0.4   0.4
Employment
(y/y)            1.1   1.2   1.4   1.4   1.4   1.3   1.6   1.6   1.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
p: preliminary (flash) estimate
[TOPICS: MTABLE]

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