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AMERICAS OIL: Energy Trends to Watch in Trump’s 2nd Term – Part 1: Tarif

AMERICAS OIL
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As Trump returns to the office today, one of the most immediate policies to keep an eye on are any implementation of tariffs.

  • Having promised tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico, this policy if pursued would be consequential for energy markets.
  • US refiners in the Midwest and Gulf Coast are configured to process heavy sour Canadian crudes from Alberta; slapping tariffs on these barrels could drive up US gasoline prices in some regions.
  • Likewise, the Gulf Coast imports significant volumes of Mexican crudes.
  • Depending on retaliatory measures taken by the US’ neighbours and the demand from other markets such as Asia, we could either see a redirection of flows, widening crude discounts, rising domestic product prices, or a combination of all.
  • Regarding China, tariffs would likely lead to retaliatory duties on US goods into China, jeopardising Beijing’s rising appetite for US LNG.
  • Chinese companies have signed up to around 2.9m mtpa of long-term US LNG supply in 2025, rising to 6.2m mtpa by 2026, Platts said.
  • During Trump's previous term, LNG deliveries from the US to China stopped between mid-March 2019 and mid-April 2020 after tariffs were introduced.
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As Trump returns to the office today, one of the most immediate policies to keep an eye on are any implementation of tariffs.

  • Having promised tariffs against Canada, China, and Mexico, this policy if pursued would be consequential for energy markets.
  • US refiners in the Midwest and Gulf Coast are configured to process heavy sour Canadian crudes from Alberta; slapping tariffs on these barrels could drive up US gasoline prices in some regions.
  • Likewise, the Gulf Coast imports significant volumes of Mexican crudes.
  • Depending on retaliatory measures taken by the US’ neighbours and the demand from other markets such as Asia, we could either see a redirection of flows, widening crude discounts, rising domestic product prices, or a combination of all.
  • Regarding China, tariffs would likely lead to retaliatory duties on US goods into China, jeopardising Beijing’s rising appetite for US LNG.
  • Chinese companies have signed up to around 2.9m mtpa of long-term US LNG supply in 2025, rising to 6.2m mtpa by 2026, Platts said.
  • During Trump's previous term, LNG deliveries from the US to China stopped between mid-March 2019 and mid-April 2020 after tariffs were introduced.