MNI NBP Review - Jan 2025: More Hawkishness, Less Guidance
Executive Summary:
- The MPC left the reference rate unchanged at 5.75%.
- The tone of the statement and presser was more hawkish.
- The Governor said he would no longer provide as much forward guidance
Click here to see the full review: MNI NBP Review - January 2025.pdf
Despite the fact that the outcome of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) meeting was telegraphed in advance and fully priced in by the markets, post-meeting communique was closely scrutinised by NBP observers amid their efforts to chart Poland’s uncertain interest-rate outlook. The statement underwent an unusual number of modifications, which were marginally hawkish, on balance. It was the subsequent press conference that stole the limelight, however, with Governor Adam Glapiński reaffirming his hawkish pivot and deploying even more cautious rhetoric, playing down the potential for any immediate policy action. At the same time, the Governor said that the NBP will be more frugal with forward guidance, blaming its inadequate transmission by analysts and reporters for generating an excessive amount of noise.