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Erdogan Facing Defeat In '23 Election If Joint Opposition Candidate Runs


Latest AREA polling shows President Recep Tayyip Erdogan losing in the first round of next year's election to likely Republican People's Party (CHP) candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the scenario in which the opposition unites around the CHP leader.

  • Presidential election with possible joint candidates: Kılıçdaroğlu (CHP): 53% (+7), Erdoğan (AKP~NI): 47% (-7), +/- vs. January 2022, Fieldwork: 15-20 September 2022, Sample size: 3,123
  • The prospect of the opposition uniting around single candidates remains precarious though. The Kurdish interest People's Democratic Party (HDP, polling around 10% nationally) has mooted the potential for an alliance in the presidential election with other opposition parties.
  • However this prospect remains uncertain, with senior HDP deputy Saruhan Oluc stating to Reuters earlier in September that " the identity of the presidential candidate was less important than the opposition agreeing on policy."

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