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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has indicated that the country's presidential and parliamentary elections will take place on 14 May, saying that the "Turkish people will do what is necessary on May 14."
- His comments come following speculation that the election could be held in June (the latest an election could take place under current parliamentary/presidential terms) due to the impact of the February earthquakes in Turkey's south.
- The opposition alliance of parties is yet to agree on a candidate to challenge Erdogan. The decision was due in mid-Feb but delayed indefinitely due to the earthquakes. The alliance, while committed to ousting Erdogan, remains fragile given its disparate ideological components, ranging from nationalists to social democrats to Kurdish-interest parties.
- Opinion polling has been relatively sparse, especially gauging Erdogan's chances against potential rivals. Party polling shows his nationalist Justice and Development Party (AKP) at around 30% support in late Feb, well below the 42% achieved in the 2018 election. If no candidate wins over 50% of the vote in the the (probable) 14 May election, a second-round run-off takes place.
- The (relatively illiquid) political betting markets give Erdogan a 69.4% implied probability of winning the election, compared to 16.7% for Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of the centre-left Republican Peoples' Party - the largest component of the opposition alliance.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets, (Erdogan-Green, Kilicdaroglu-Blue)
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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