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Erste 1Q24 Results Good, Guidance Not Upgraded, Yet.

FINANCIALS

Erste Bank 1Q24 results (ERSTBK: A1/A+/A) are ahead of expectations but mgmt haven’t put guidance upgrades through ahead of its expectation of 2H24 rate cuts. Spreads have performed well YTD which these results appear to support. The positive performance across CEE is positive for Unicredit and Raiffeisen (though the latter has idiosyncratic issues).


  • Key credit stats: CET1 ratio in line with expectations (15.5% pro-forma basis) and loan losses were broadly in line (at 18bp of lending). Non-performers edged up slightly on Dec-23 (at 2.3%) and residential property developments in Austria but this really is very minor, we feel.
  • Wider group: revenues are 5% above expectations but this is driven largely by trading profits, albeit NII did beat slightly. Costs are slightly better, too pushing net income 12% above consensus.
  • Outlook: there are no explicit guidance upgrades here but notable that the group is ahead of NII guidance (1Q24 +4.7% y/y, FY24 guidance: -3%) as are fees (+10.8% y/y vs. “mid-single digit” FY24 growth).

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