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Erste Group Leave Year-End Policy Rate Forecast Unchanged at 10.5%

HUNGARY
  • Erste Group continue to think that the pace of the expected rate cuts after September remains uncertain. They think that the bigger than expected improvement in the trade and C/A balances coupled with fast disinflation expected for 2H should enable the NBH to continue with 100bp steps – at least at the beginning of 4Q23 – if the risk environment remains supportive.
  • In December, a slowdown to 50bp cut seems likely, in their view, as the 2024 inflation risks should to a more extent be the focus.
  • All in all, they have kept their forecasts for the policy rate at year-end unchanged at 10.50%. A more cautious easing process may continue in 2024, depending primarily on inflation developments, they say.
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