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Bears Pause For Breath


Trend Needle Still Points South


(Z1) Bearish Risk Remains Present


(Z1) Recovers Off Last Week's Low



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Municipal elections held across Estonia on 17 October delivered a rebuke to the two parties in the national gov't, which both saw their respective vote shares from the previous vote in 2017 decline.

  • Local elections (National): Centre Party (K): 24% (-3), Electoral alliances: 24% (-3), Reform Party (R): 17% (-3), Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE): 13% (+6), Isamaa: 8%, E200: 6%, Social Democratic Party (SDE): 5% (-5). +/-vs. 2017 election results
  • The agrarian Centre Party and liberal Reform Party that form the national gov't each lost 3% support from their 2017 levels, with the right-wing populist EKRE and centrist Estonia200 gaining at these parties' expense.
  • In the capital, Tallinn, the Centre Party lost its long-held majority on the city council and will require coalition partners in order to govern.
  • The strong performance of the EKRE combined with the party's strong nationwide opinion polling will only add to concerns among the governing parties about the surge in support for populists in Estonia. For the Centre Party, which garners notable support from Estonia's Russophone minority, the increasing strength of the EKRE among this group (after previously arguing in favour of ending Russian language education in Estonian schools) could prove an existential threat.
  • The next legislative elections are not due until 2023, meaning there is little immediate threat to gov't stability from the municipal vote.