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CREDIT UPDATE
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  • €IG is skewed slightly tighter, moves broad based. Widening was limited to few names & led by CPI property (+18-40) on S&P downgrade into BB+ Neg outlook - Moody's on Baa3 Neg, company responding immediately. Mobico31s (+6) also saw some pressure - no firm view on co yet, tough one with business sale uncertainty, weak FY guidance & long duration exposure/no curve to hedge with.
  • Bunds +2 in the belly & +5 on the week. Lower beta to the US led rates rally this afternoon, after April PCE showed inflation coming well in-line which meant a MoM easing in the rate of inflation across measures & decrease in 3-month moving averages on yearly basis (including for supercore). Weak real personal spending and Chicago MNI PMI coming well below expectations have given dovish support. Our macro teams take was no change to Fed positioning, next week's April NFP in sight now.
  • €IG equity basket is +0.4%, helping recover mid-week losses & leaving it unch on the week. Tech was weak today (-1.5%) dragged on by Dell (-22%) on earnings & Capgeminni (-5%) on 2 broker cuts & follows Salesforce's -20% fall on guidance miss yest. RE (+1%) & Energy (+1.2%) were firm, single name gains led by VFC (+10%). iTraxx ends the week +1.4/+7 wider on weaker headline equity sentiment.
  • Next week brings ECB meet where 25bp cut is expected (& priced), Eurozone Unit Labour Costs on Friday and US May payrolls on Friday.
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  • €IG is skewed slightly tighter, moves broad based. Widening was limited to few names & led by CPI property (+18-40) on S&P downgrade into BB+ Neg outlook - Moody's on Baa3 Neg, company responding immediately. Mobico31s (+6) also saw some pressure - no firm view on co yet, tough one with business sale uncertainty, weak FY guidance & long duration exposure/no curve to hedge with.
  • Bunds +2 in the belly & +5 on the week. Lower beta to the US led rates rally this afternoon, after April PCE showed inflation coming well in-line which meant a MoM easing in the rate of inflation across measures & decrease in 3-month moving averages on yearly basis (including for supercore). Weak real personal spending and Chicago MNI PMI coming well below expectations have given dovish support. Our macro teams take was no change to Fed positioning, next week's April NFP in sight now.
  • €IG equity basket is +0.4%, helping recover mid-week losses & leaving it unch on the week. Tech was weak today (-1.5%) dragged on by Dell (-22%) on earnings & Capgeminni (-5%) on 2 broker cuts & follows Salesforce's -20% fall on guidance miss yest. RE (+1%) & Energy (+1.2%) were firm, single name gains led by VFC (+10%). iTraxx ends the week +1.4/+7 wider on weaker headline equity sentiment.
  • Next week brings ECB meet where 25bp cut is expected (& priced), Eurozone Unit Labour Costs on Friday and US May payrolls on Friday.