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CREDIT UPDATE
  • €IG cash is pointing to a rough close and is bringing back memories of the high-single digit moves we saw during the French election rout. We were, as at Thursdays close, 10bps shy of those levels and still -25bps in YTD.
  • High-beta RE found no reassurance from the -10bp move in bunds as they led the move wider (CPI +20-25, Aroundtown +4-25, HEIBOS +6-25). Consumer names VFC (+2-22) and Elis (+16-18) were not far behind and neither were (again) Autos (Rolls +10-16, VW +2-15, Ford +9-16, BMW +2-13). Gains were limited to Thames (unch to -25) that is continuing a reversal back in.
  • In €HY PFLEID 26s continued a reversal, +1.1pt and the only one moving that way. Losses were led by IMGRP 28s (-2pts), Forvia (-0.4-1.7pts), 888 27s (-1.3pts) and Auchan (+20-60bps/-0.4-0.8pts).
  • The risk-off did hit equities; €IG basket was down -2.6% (vs. SXXP -2.8% and SPX -2.6%) - one of the worst closes we have seen for it and was led by normally lower beta Financials (-4.6%) with IT (-3.9%), Materials (-3.2%), Consumer Cyclicals (-3%) and Industrials (-3%) not far behind. That is nearly half the sectors with 3ppt falls. Only two in the green was consumer staples (+0.2%) and Utilities (+1.1%).
  • Single name movers were Chemours (-18%) on earnings, Avis (-10%) ahead of earnings, Forvia (-10%), Viridien (-9%), Goodyear (-8%) after earnings and Softbank (-8%). Gainers were far and few; Victoria PLC (+7%) and Elia (+3.5%) leading.
  • Our economist said that employment report was "much weaker than expected in almost every respect, and with only a few mitigating factors based on a closer look at the underlying numbers.". BLS played down any impact from Hurrican Beryl. Bunds are -10bps in the belly and finishes -26bps this week.
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