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EU Could Face New Populist Challenge As Fico Set To Return As PM

SLOVAKIA

The Slovakian general election on 30 September delivered a strong result for former PM Robert Fico and his left-wing populist Smer-SD. Smer-SD won 42 seats in the 150-member National Council, ahead of the pro-EU liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) in second place with 32 seats. While Fico will still have to hold negotiations with other parties to form a majority gov't, the make-up of the National Council makes a Smer-SD-led coalition more likely than a PS-led one.

  • The third-largest party in parliament, the centre-left Hlas-SD with 27 seats, appears more willing to work with Smer-SD than PS. Hlas-SD is led by former Smer-SD PM Peter Pellegrini. In the aftermath of the vote hestated that his partywas “closer” both “politically and ideologically,” with Smer-SD than PS. The right-wing nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS) has worked with Smer-SD in the past, and its 10 seats would put a Smer-SD/Hlas-SD/SNS gov't over the majority threshold.
  • Given Fico's swing towards anti-EU populism and his statements regarding 'not a single round' of ammunition being provided to Ukraine under his gov't there will be major concerns in Brussels about a Fico-led Slovakia.
  • However, Pellegrini has hinted that in exchange for his party's support, Fico will have to moderate his tone and policies, stating that “Hlas will only join such a coalition [with Smer] if all of the fears [PS leader] Mr. Šimečka mentioned are off the table,...Smer will have to make compromises and correct [some of] its statements.“
Chart 1. Slovakia Election Results

Source: volbysr.sk, MNI. 99.98% of results counted.

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