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EMISSIONS: EU End of Day Carbon Summary: EUAs/UKAs Fall Softly on Sideways Curve

EMISSIONS
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EUA/UKA Dec25 is oscillating between minor gains and losses throughout the day, deviating from the TTF dip as carbon losses are limited by low wind in Europe and drop in  temperatures next week. The release of COT report today didn’t not have material impact to the market.

  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 68.18 EUR/t CO2e
  • UKA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 39.64 GBP/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas APR 25 down 5% at 41.27 EUR/MWh
  • NBP Gas APR 25 down 3.9% at 99.5 GBp/therm
  • A sharp sell-off in ICE EUA futures yesterday confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has traded through the final retracement point of the Dec 17 - Jan 30 bull leg - the 76.4% retracement at €68.88. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals potential for a move towards the next key support at €64.05, the Dec 17 ‘24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is €75.23, the 50-day EMA.
  • Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period weakened to 0.66 from the 0.69 on the previous day, amid the deviation on the day.
  • Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained stable at 0.63.
  • The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained stable at €21.17/t CO2e.
  • The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €67.99/ton CO2e, down 6.74% compared with the previous auction at €72.9/ton CO2e according to EEX.
  • The UKA ICE auction cleared at lower at £38.02/ton CO2e, compared with £41.25/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 19 February.
  • Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the third consecutive week with net long positionings holding at the lowest since 17 January, the latest COT data as of 28 February showed.
  • Speculators positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange were bearish by reducing their net long positions, the latest COT data as of 28 February showed.
  • The European Commission said on 5 March it would keep the 2035 net-zero target and 2030 intermediate target for all new cars and vans sold in the bloc, it said.
  • The UK released the 2025 aviation free allocation table on 5 March, showing a total of 4.09mn allowances, with a 2.4% reduction year on year. The reduction factor is in line with the 2.36% in 2024.
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EUA/UKA Dec25 is oscillating between minor gains and losses throughout the day, deviating from the TTF dip as carbon losses are limited by low wind in Europe and drop in  temperatures next week. The release of COT report today didn’t not have material impact to the market.

  • EUA DEC 25 down 0.5% at 68.18 EUR/t CO2e
  • UKA DEC 25 down 0.1% at 39.64 GBP/t CO2e
  • TTF Gas APR 25 down 5% at 41.27 EUR/MWh
  • NBP Gas APR 25 down 3.9% at 99.5 GBp/therm
  • A sharp sell-off in ICE EUA futures yesterday confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The contract has traded through the final retracement point of the Dec 17 - Jan 30 bull leg - the 76.4% retracement at €68.88. This strengthens the current bearish theme and signals potential for a move towards the next key support at €64.05, the Dec 17 ‘24 low. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is €75.23, the 50-day EMA.
  • Correlation between EUA/TTF for 30-day period weakened to 0.66 from the 0.69 on the previous day, amid the deviation on the day.
  • Correlation between EUA/UKA for 30-day period remained stable at 0.63.
  • The EUA Dec25 premium to the UK equivalent remained stable at €21.17/t CO2e.
  • The latest bi-weekly Poland ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €67.99/ton CO2e, down 6.74% compared with the previous auction at €72.9/ton CO2e according to EEX.
  • The UKA ICE auction cleared at lower at £38.02/ton CO2e, compared with £41.25/ton CO2e in the previous auction on 19 February.
  • Speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned more bearish for the third consecutive week with net long positionings holding at the lowest since 17 January, the latest COT data as of 28 February showed.
  • Speculators positioning in UK ETS futures on the ICE exchange were bearish by reducing their net long positions, the latest COT data as of 28 February showed.
  • The European Commission said on 5 March it would keep the 2035 net-zero target and 2030 intermediate target for all new cars and vans sold in the bloc, it said.
  • The UK released the 2025 aviation free allocation table on 5 March, showing a total of 4.09mn allowances, with a 2.4% reduction year on year. The reduction factor is in line with the 2.36% in 2024.