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EU Gas Demand Likely to Decline in July: ICIS

NATGAS

European industrial and residential-commercial natural gas demand is likely to decline m/m in July, according to ICIS Gas Foresight.

  • Industrial demand in the 12 major hubs in western and central is forecast to fall 3% and residential-commercial demand to fall 17%. Year-to-date demand has been 20% lower than the 2017-2021 average.
  • The global LNG market is expected to be oversupplied by 2.2m tonnes and could therefore boost LNG imports to Europe by 17% m/m.
  • The Norwegian supply reduction due to expected outages will average 10mcm/day in July, according to Gassco, after unplanned June outages.
  • Natural gas storage injections are expected to be 35% higher m/m taking stores to 87% full at month end and only just below the EU 90% target by November.
  • The increase in Germany’s THE gas neutrality levy from €1.86MWh to €2.5/MWh on July 1 is expected to support a decline in exports to neighbouring countries, such as the Czech Republic and Austria, and slow the demand recovery.
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