EU Gas Storage Withdrawals Likely to Stay Below Norm Until End-Dec

European net gas storage withdrawals picked up early this week, rising above the five-year average for the first time in ten days but forecasts for mild weather paired with higher wind output in parts of the continent are likely to weigh on gas storage withdrawals for the remainder of this month.

• EU net gas storage withdrawals stood at 4,323GWh/d on 19 December, above the five-year average of 3,653Gwh/d, GIE data showed. Net withdrawals have been consistently below the average since 9 December, supported by mild weather and high renewables output.
• Temperatures in most of central Europe will stay above the average throughout the remainder of December, with temperatures in NW Europe to rise 4C above the seasonal norm this weekend according to forecaster Maxar Technologies. Latest Bloomberg weather forecasts suggest colder weather at the end of the two-week forecast period.
• High renewables output is also suppressing gas output for power generation this week. German wind output peaked at 50,87GW on Thursday morning, EEX data showed.
• German renewables output reached a share of 78.5% of the total power generation as of 10:40 CET on Thursday, while gas output dropped to a share of 7.8% of the power mix, Fraunhofer ISE data showed.
  • TTF JAN 24 up 3.1% at 34.56€/MWh
  • TTF Q1 24 up 2.9% at 34.73€/MWh