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EU LNG Imports Could Rise in March from Feb but Fall Year on Year

LNG

EU LNG imports are set to fall in March from 15.1bcm last year amid oversupply, weak demand and increasing competition from Asian buyers according to Montel sources.

  • Imports into Europe and Turkey are however forecast to be higher than the 13.8bcm seen in February according to Laura Page at Kpler. The injection season from April could lead to a rise in European LNG imports and some market participants are expecting an early start to the season.
  • LNG supply fell more than 8% year on year in February following a 7% decline in January.
  • “If the Asia spot price continues to be sub $10/mmbtu, Asia buyers should be bidding a healthy amount, likely outbidding Europe,” said Alex Siow at ICIS.
  • ICIS expect Chinese LNG imports to increase year on year to 5.7m tonnes in March, 5.7m tonnes in April, 6.3m tonnes in May and 6.1m tonnes in June.
  • Asia front-month JKM LNG is near three-year lows and almost a 2€/MWh premium to TTF. US LNG exports are more profitable to Asia than Europe until next winter through both the Panama Canal and the Cape of Good Hope, according to Spark Commodities data.
    • TTF APR 24 down -0.9% at 25.58€/MWh
    • NBP APR 24 down -0.2% at 64.14p/th
    • JKM Apr 24 up 1.9% at 8.52$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Apr 24 up 0.4$/mmbtu at 0.51$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas APR 24 up 5.8% at 1.94$/mmbtu
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