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POWER: EU Mid-Day Power Summary: DE-FR February Spread Widens

POWER
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The German-French February power spread is widening to the highest since 2 January today, with gains in the energy complex and a downward revision in temperatures supporting the German contract more strongly. Nordic February power is extending gains for the third consecutive session, with a downward revision in the region’s hydro balances and gains in EU gas and German power. 

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 8% at 40.5 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 2.2% at 99.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 4.3% at 107.17 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2% at 78.5 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.1% at 47.46 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front-month has extended gains through the morning with a downward revision in temperatures, potentially increasing demand and storage withdrawals, adding to talks that the EU may sanction for prohibit Russian LNG imports.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have extended gains today with forecasts suggesting colder, less windy weather through next week, likely supporting fossil-fuel power generation, adding to latest COT data suggesting speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned again more bullish on the week with net long positionings at the highest since the week of 19 August 2022.
  • The European Aviation Environmental Report 2025 indicates that CO2 emissions from aviation, which totalled 133mn tonnes in 2023, are down 10% from 2019.
  • Investment Funds positioning in ICE German power futures increased their net short position to another fresh high since flipping from a net long position in the week of 29 Nov 2024.
  • Germany issued a new record amount of onshore wind permits in 2024, totalling 2,405 plants with a combined capacity of 14.06GW.
  • Italian hydropower reserves last week continued to fall from the previous week, dropping by 0.09TWh to 2.86TWh.
  • Capacity curtailments at the 2GW IFA interconnector have been increased with available capacity now at 500MW, compared with 1GW previously until 21 January.
  • France’s EdF denies claims that costs for the UK’s planned 3.2GW Sizewell C nuclear power station will reach £40bn.
  • UK’s NESO will halt accepting new power grid projects that plan to join the queue on 29 January as it plans to improve the system.
  • Planned maintenance that is scheduled on the 1.4GW GB-NO2 and 2.2-3.7GW NO2-NO1 Power links to address essential fault corrections has been extended to 18 January.
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The German-French February power spread is widening to the highest since 2 January today, with gains in the energy complex and a downward revision in temperatures supporting the German contract more strongly. Nordic February power is extending gains for the third consecutive session, with a downward revision in the region’s hydro balances and gains in EU gas and German power. 

  • Nordic Base Power FEB 25 up 8% at 40.5 EUR/MWh
  • France Base Power FEB 25 up 2.2% at 99.3 EUR/MWh
  • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 4.3% at 107.17 EUR/MWh
  • EUA DEC 25 up 2% at 78.5 EUR/MT
  • TTF Gas FEB 25 up 1.1% at 47.46 EUR/MWh
  • TTF front-month has extended gains through the morning with a downward revision in temperatures, potentially increasing demand and storage withdrawals, adding to talks that the EU may sanction for prohibit Russian LNG imports.
  • EU ETS December 2025 allowances have extended gains today with forecasts suggesting colder, less windy weather through next week, likely supporting fossil-fuel power generation, adding to latest COT data suggesting speculator positioning in EU ETS futures on the ICE exchange turned again more bullish on the week with net long positionings at the highest since the week of 19 August 2022.
  • The European Aviation Environmental Report 2025 indicates that CO2 emissions from aviation, which totalled 133mn tonnes in 2023, are down 10% from 2019.
  • Investment Funds positioning in ICE German power futures increased their net short position to another fresh high since flipping from a net long position in the week of 29 Nov 2024.
  • Germany issued a new record amount of onshore wind permits in 2024, totalling 2,405 plants with a combined capacity of 14.06GW.
  • Italian hydropower reserves last week continued to fall from the previous week, dropping by 0.09TWh to 2.86TWh.
  • Capacity curtailments at the 2GW IFA interconnector have been increased with available capacity now at 500MW, compared with 1GW previously until 21 January.
  • France’s EdF denies claims that costs for the UK’s planned 3.2GW Sizewell C nuclear power station will reach £40bn.
  • UK’s NESO will halt accepting new power grid projects that plan to join the queue on 29 January as it plans to improve the system.
  • Planned maintenance that is scheduled on the 1.4GW GB-NO2 and 2.2-3.7GW NO2-NO1 Power links to address essential fault corrections has been extended to 18 January.