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EU Gas Demand Narrows Deficit To 2016-2020 Average In April

NATURAL GAS

Natural gas demand in Europe averaged 3%, or 26mcm/d, below the 2016-2020 average in the first 17 days of April, pointing to lower demand destruction in the region according to BloombergNEF.

  • BNEF also revised up its base case gas demand forecast for the May-September period. Demand is estimated at 6%, or 36mcm/d, below the 2016-20 average, if weather is in line with the 10-year average.
  • This upward revision is mostly driven by easing demand destruction in the residential and commercial sector, and more bullish expectations of gas demand in the power sector due to lower hydropower output and nuclear availability as well as anticipated coal-to-gas switching.
  • Declining natural gas prices in Europe have supported coal-to-gas switching in the region.
  • German May spark spreads 49.5%-efficient gas plant stood last -€19.53/MWh, compared with German May dark spreads for a 36%-efficient plant at – €30.06/MWh. Spark Spreads for Q3 remain also ahead of dark spreads at -€8.79/MWh, compared with dark spreads at -€15.51/MWh.

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