EU Set To Unfreeze Funds Amid Fears Of Orban Veto On Ukraine

Politico reports that the European Commission is set to give approval today to the gradual unfreezing of EUR10bn in cohesion funding for Hungary in exchange for partial progress in resolving rule-of-law issues raised by Brussels. However, many EU politicians have decried the move, arguing that Budapest has not engaged in significant reforms. Instead they say the unfreezing of funds is an attempt to dissuade Prime Minister Viktor Orbán from vetoing the proposed provision of EUR50bn of financial aid to Kyiv under a revised multiannual financial framework (EU long-term budget) and blocking the start of accession talks between the EU and Ukraine.

• A number of EU politicians, including German Green MEP Daniel Freund and former Belgian PM Guy Verhofstadt, have raised the prospect of Hungary having its voting rights at the EU removed under Article 7 proceedings.
• Orbán has maintained closer links with Russian President Vladimir Putin than any other EU leader, raising significant concerns in many EU capitals about maintaining EU unity in the face of Russia's war in Ukraine.
• However, this is an unlikely prospect. Removal of voting rights requires unanimity at the Council level. While Orbán's erstwhile ally Polish PM Mateusz Morawiecki is currently in the process of being replaced by pro-EU Donald Tusk, Orbán is likely to be able to rely on another returning central European PM in the form of Slovakia's Robert Fico. Given Fico's populist and anti-Ukraine aid rhetoric he and Orbán could form a mutual partnership to veto any Article 7 measures against the other.