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NATGAS: EU to Overshoot 2030 REPowerEU Gas Consumption Target by 80%: BNEF

NATGAS

The vast majority of the targets in the European Union’s REPowerEU plan are to be missed as the half way mark is fast approaching, according to BNEF.

  • The bloc is set to miss the 2030 REPowerEU gas consumption target with an overshoot of over 80%.  
  • BNEF expects Europe’s gas demand to grow 11% from 2024 to 432Bcm in 2026, primarily driven by an increasing share of gas in the power mix amid less coal use.
  • High prices weakened gas demand but it is expected to remain stable over 2025-2030. Gas consumption in 2030 falls to 403bcm as renewables replace some gas use, but well above the REPowerEU target of 220bcm.
  • LNG has replaced over 50% of the diverted Russian pipeline supply in 2023 compared to 2021. LNG imports to overshoot the EU’s 50bcm target almost three-fold. BNEF estimate a 44% share of LNG in European gas supply in 2030.
  • Around 15bcm of Russian gas is still expected to Europe per year, primarily through TurkStream, after a halt in transit volumes via Ukraine in 2025.

 

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The vast majority of the targets in the European Union’s REPowerEU plan are to be missed as the half way mark is fast approaching, according to BNEF.

  • The bloc is set to miss the 2030 REPowerEU gas consumption target with an overshoot of over 80%.  
  • BNEF expects Europe’s gas demand to grow 11% from 2024 to 432Bcm in 2026, primarily driven by an increasing share of gas in the power mix amid less coal use.
  • High prices weakened gas demand but it is expected to remain stable over 2025-2030. Gas consumption in 2030 falls to 403bcm as renewables replace some gas use, but well above the REPowerEU target of 220bcm.
  • LNG has replaced over 50% of the diverted Russian pipeline supply in 2023 compared to 2021. LNG imports to overshoot the EU’s 50bcm target almost three-fold. BNEF estimate a 44% share of LNG in European gas supply in 2030.
  • Around 15bcm of Russian gas is still expected to Europe per year, primarily through TurkStream, after a halt in transit volumes via Ukraine in 2025.

 

Keep reading...Show less