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FOREX: EUR Buoyed as Differences Narrow in German Politics

FOREX
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  • The EUR trades well, helping buoy EUR/USD to another cycle high of 1.0921 after The Greens yesterday appeared to soften their resistance to supporting the debt brake proposals before the end of this parliament - meaning sufficient concessions are likely to be made to pass the legislation before a trickier set of Bundestag mathematics kicks in for the upcoming parliament.
  • EUR/USD now faces resistance at 1.0937 next, clearance above which would cement a break of the US election highs, and add to the near-term upward momentum in the pair. As a result, the USD is offered against most others, with only the JPY underperforming. EUR/JPY remains below the 100-dma, which marks the next upside level at Y161.32.
  • Scandinavian currencies remain particularly firm. Norway followed Sweden's headline-beating pace of inflation yesterday, meaning market pricing for easing from both the Swedish RIksbank as well as the Norges Bank has contracted sharply - supporting both currencies. USD/NOK has corrected to new YTD lows, testing 10.6605 support - the 76.4% retracement for the rally posted off the September 2024 lows.
  • US JOLTS jobs data marks the calendar highlight Tuesday, as markets look for higher quality data on the labour markets following last week's NFP print and headed into next week's FOMC decision. There are no remaining central bank speakers today, leaving focus on geopolitical risks as Ukrainian and US representatives meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss the prospect of peace talks and settlements with Russia. 
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  • The EUR trades well, helping buoy EUR/USD to another cycle high of 1.0921 after The Greens yesterday appeared to soften their resistance to supporting the debt brake proposals before the end of this parliament - meaning sufficient concessions are likely to be made to pass the legislation before a trickier set of Bundestag mathematics kicks in for the upcoming parliament.
  • EUR/USD now faces resistance at 1.0937 next, clearance above which would cement a break of the US election highs, and add to the near-term upward momentum in the pair. As a result, the USD is offered against most others, with only the JPY underperforming. EUR/JPY remains below the 100-dma, which marks the next upside level at Y161.32.
  • Scandinavian currencies remain particularly firm. Norway followed Sweden's headline-beating pace of inflation yesterday, meaning market pricing for easing from both the Swedish RIksbank as well as the Norges Bank has contracted sharply - supporting both currencies. USD/NOK has corrected to new YTD lows, testing 10.6605 support - the 76.4% retracement for the rally posted off the September 2024 lows.
  • US JOLTS jobs data marks the calendar highlight Tuesday, as markets look for higher quality data on the labour markets following last week's NFP print and headed into next week's FOMC decision. There are no remaining central bank speakers today, leaving focus on geopolitical risks as Ukrainian and US representatives meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss the prospect of peace talks and settlements with Russia.