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EUR Crosses Benefit From Risk-Off Tone, TRY Spikes

FOREX
  • Senator Manchin's one-handed tanking of Biden's Build Back Better bill combined with fresh Omicron-related restriction fears guided risk lower to start the week.
  • The pressure on both equity and commodity markets weighed on the likes of NZD and CAD, both around 0.45% lower against the greenback.
  • A mixed performance for the US dollar and a broadly unchanged dollar index was largely down to a higher Euro with EURUSD slowly eroding Friday’s retreat and briefly retaining the 1.13 handle. Naturally there was very supportive price in Euro crosses, with EURNZD and EURCAD rising close to 1%.
  • In emerging markets, USDTRY finally settled around the 15.00 mark after a stunning 23% intra-day reversal from highs of 18.36 to lows around 14.27. Comments from President Erdogan sparked some renewed optimism for the Lira, with understandably poor liquidity exacerbating the price action.
  • The government announced measures including the introduction of a new program that will protect savings from fluctuations in the local currency. The government will make up for losses incurred by holders of lira deposits should the lira’s declines against hard currencies exceed interest rates promised by banks. The pair reversed most of the prior week’s rally and as a reference point, support to watch is seen at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 13.6069.
  • Despite the lack of event risk in the immediate pipeline with the holidays approaching, overnight markets will see the latest RBA minutes and Canadian retail sales will be the highlight of the North American data docket.
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