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EUR Extends Winning Streak, 5 Sessions of Higher Highs

FOREX
MarketsStoryForeign Exchange BulletsFixed Income Bullets
  • EUR/USD has extended this week's winning streak despite a more stable European bond market, meaning EUR/USD has posted higher highs in each of the past five sessions, putting the pair closer within range of the $1.0900 handle.
  • Antipodean currencies are seeing little reprieve from Trump's decision to avoid the immediate impact of the harshest tariffs against Canada and Mexico. As such, AUD and NZD have rolled off the midweek highs against the dollar, further cementing the 100-dma as near-term resistance in AUD/USD, having posted a failed break on two separate occasions now.
  • This leaves the USD mixed against most others, and the USD Index softer. The USD Index is comfortably through the 104.00 handle having closed below Thursday confirming a further close of the pre-election gap. Technical support here undercuts at 103.373 and 102.521.
  • In a rare post-payrolls appearance, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on the economic outlook just a few hours after the NFP print. Text is set to be released, with a subsequent Q&A. Importantly, this means Powell makes one of the final Fed appearances before the media blackout kicks in at the close today.
  • Payrolls are expected to print at +160k today - and we don’t expect federal government layoffs and freezing hires to materially show in this report, but the seasonality of the data leaves it susceptible to broader pausing in hiring plans. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.0% after a surprise drop in January, in a close call with 4.1%.
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  • EUR/USD has extended this week's winning streak despite a more stable European bond market, meaning EUR/USD has posted higher highs in each of the past five sessions, putting the pair closer within range of the $1.0900 handle.
  • Antipodean currencies are seeing little reprieve from Trump's decision to avoid the immediate impact of the harshest tariffs against Canada and Mexico. As such, AUD and NZD have rolled off the midweek highs against the dollar, further cementing the 100-dma as near-term resistance in AUD/USD, having posted a failed break on two separate occasions now.
  • This leaves the USD mixed against most others, and the USD Index softer. The USD Index is comfortably through the 104.00 handle having closed below Thursday confirming a further close of the pre-election gap. Technical support here undercuts at 103.373 and 102.521.
  • In a rare post-payrolls appearance, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak on the economic outlook just a few hours after the NFP print. Text is set to be released, with a subsequent Q&A. Importantly, this means Powell makes one of the final Fed appearances before the media blackout kicks in at the close today.
  • Payrolls are expected to print at +160k today - and we don’t expect federal government layoffs and freezing hires to materially show in this report, but the seasonality of the data leaves it susceptible to broader pausing in hiring plans. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.0% after a surprise drop in January, in a close call with 4.1%.