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EUR/GBP Tilted Higher on Diverging PMIs

FOREX
  • Markets trade with a modest risk-off feel, putting the JPY at the top of the pile alongside the greenback. Equities sit slightly lower ahead of the NY crossover, despite reports of modest progress in negotiations between McCarthy and Biden in sealing a deal on the debt ceiling this week. Markets clearly remain cautious of a breakdown in the talks, with short-end T-bill yields continuing to march higher as we near the so-called X date and the US government can no longer finance day-to-day operations.
  • PMI data across Europe painted a mixed picture, with Eurozone services outperforming, while manufacturing lagged. In contrast, UK data was poorer-than-expected, tipping the composite to 53.9 vs. Exp. 54.6. EUR/GBP trades higher on the session, having traded 0.8719 at the high.
  • NOK trades at the bottom-end of the G10 table, prompting EUR/NOK to again narrow the gap with the early May highs at 11.9491. A break above here puts the cross at the best levels since the COVID pandemic in Q1 2020. NOK sits weaker following another poor consumer confidence read as well as the Norges Bank's inflation expectations survey, which showed a marked step-down in price pressure forecasts - with households now seeing 12m inflation at 4% - a 2ppts drop from the prior reading.
  • Prelim PMI data from the US, new home sales and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index take focus going forward, with speeches scheduled from BoE's Bailey & Haskel, Fed's Logan and ECB's Villeroy & Nagel.
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