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EUR/GBP/USD MoM Normalised Spread Moves

CREDIT MACRO

MoM Normalised Spread Moves

  • We present the below normalised spread moves i.e. the relative richness and cheapness of monthly index OAS spreads on a normalised twelve month basis.
  • Movements beyond a level of two standard deviations richer or poorer beyond fair value are typically met with retracement.
  • Earlier in January we noted that spreads had richened in prior weeks, with $IG and £IG remaining near the 2SD rich level while HY spreads all streamed richer MoM with both €HY and £HY screening beyond 2SD rich.
  • As of yesterday’s close, £IG spreads have widened by 0.5SD MoM on a normalised basis, moving back below the 2.1 SD level seen just before Xmas. €IG/$IG are broadly flat, sitting just below the 2SD rich level.
  • Within the HY space we see some divergence in normalised spread levels with £HY moving 0.6SD tighter to just beyond 2SD rich while $HY tightened by 0.5SD MoM, moving away from the 2SD rich level. €HY spreads were more muted though moved slightly closer to a level of 2SD’s rich.

    • 26 Jan

    USD

    EUR

    GBP

    IG

    1.9 SD tight

    1.8 SD tight

    1.7 SD tight

    HY

    1.4 SD tight

    1.9 SD tight

    2.1 SD tight

    22 Dec

    USD

    EUR

    GBP

    IG

    1.9 SD tight

    1.6 SD tight

    2.1 SD tight

    HY

    1.9 SD tight

    1.7 SD tight

    1.5 SD tight






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