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EUR/HUF Reverses Gains Following Inflation-Inspired Spike

HUNGARY

EUR/HUF is broadly unchanged having pared its CPI-inspired gains following the lower-than-expected 21.5% y/y print. The cross traded to a high of 369.76 this morning, though fell well short of initial resistance at 374.10 – where the 50-day EMA currently intersects. Single currency strength is underpinning the moderate HUF recovery.

  • Bearish EUR/HUF trend conditions have been affirmed in recent sessions with the cross having traded to a cycle low on Tuesday. Momentum below 368.05 – the May 16 low – may target 366.41 – the Mar 30 2022 low – and the 360.00 handle further out.
  • As we noted earlier, the rally on Hungarian bonds which begun following last week’s tax saving announcement has extended today, with HU-GE 10y yield spreads narrowing to their lowest levels since Feb’22.
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