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EUR/JPY Winning Streak Extends

FOREX
  • JPY was the poorest performer across G10, largely on EUR/JPY buying. The cross has extended a recent bounce, printing higher highs and higher lows for a sixth consecutive session and erasing the sell-off triggered by the second round of JPY intervention in early May. The cross is now testing the 61.8% retracement of the total post-intervention move, and eyes 168.66 resistance initially ahead of 169.39/77.
  • After a subdued start to the session, the USD picked up on the back of the NY Fed inflation expectations numbers - showing higher 1-yr, 5-yr inflation expectations readings, compounding the unexpected jump in the UMich inflation expectation for May posted on Friday (3.5% for 1-yr vs. Exp. 3.2%, Prev. 3.2%). EUR/USD faded well off highs on the release, keeping a cap on the early rally in the pair.
  • NOK traded well, rising against most others in G10 as WTI and Brent crude futures erased a small part of recent weakness. USD/NOK broke to new multi-week lows to meet the 50-dma support of 10.7954 - which holds as key support ahead. Clearance here puts the pair at the lowest levels since mid-April.
  • Focus Tuesday turns to US PPI - unusually taking place a day ahead of the US CPI release, which could mean markets are more responsive than average over the data. Final demand PPI is expected to pick up by 0.1ppts to 2.2%, however ex-food and energy is seen moderating to 2.3%. UK labour market data and German ZEW data make up the rest of the schedule.
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