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​EUR MARKET WRAP

CREDIT PRE-MARKET


  • 2y/10y bunds ended -9.5bp/-5bp after markets read Lagarde's comments as dovish, at least in contrast to the prior strong pushback vs rate cut pricing seen from ECB-speakers. Also noting a Reuters sources piece post-close suggesting policymakers are open to changing their rhetoric at the March meeting, laying foundations for a June cut.
  • Main/XO opened wider and traded sideways before tightening through the ECB and US data to end -0.6bp/-4bp while CDX IG/HY ended -0.7bp/-5.5bp after the mixed bag of US data which saw Jobless and Continuing Claims miss estimates while GDP and Wholesales beat estimates (but also with downward revisions).
  • €IG/€HY ended -1.7bp/+6.6bp with HY underperformance driven by both BB and B bonds while €IG saw most sectors modestly tighter. Primary markets remained closed though we have two HY deals in the pipeline from United Group (again) and Kapla while Mitsubishi also have an IG mandate.
  • SXXP ended +0.3% after ticking wider in the wake of the ECB with defensives and Autos both underperforming at -0.8%. Nokia was the biggest mover of the day at +11% after guiding for 2024 adj-Op Profit of €2.3bn-€2.9bn vs. consensus of €2.4bn.
  • Asian equities are lower with Nikkei and HIS close to -1.5% as weak US equity futures, particularly in the tech space, weighed on sentiment. SXXP futures are flat DoD.
  • Up today we have:


Time

C

Event

07:00

GE

GfK Consumer Confidence

07:30

EC

ECB's Panetta

07:45

FR

Consumer Confidence

08:00

SP

Unemployment Rate

09:00

EC

M3 Money Supply

09:00

EC

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

09:00

LN

ECB's Simkus

09:30

EC

ECB's Kazaks, Vujcic

13:30

US

Personal Income and Spending

13:30

US

PCE Deflator & Core Deflator

15:00

US

Pending Home Sales

16:00

US

Kansas City Fed Services Activity


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