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EUR Market Wrap

CREDIT PRE-MARKET


  • 2y/10y bunds closed -10bp/-7bp with the bulk of the move coming on the US data at 13:30 on the July employment report which was much weaker than had been expected in almost every respect with the “Sahm rule” recession indicator triggered though Fed Chair Powell had played down the relevance of the indicator on Wednesday. WoW moves of -26bp/-23bp.
  • Main/XO were +4.1bp/+22bp at 62.9bp/332bp for WoW moves of +8.6bp/+37bp while €IG/€HY was +6.5bp/+19.5bp in what was the third worst day for the IG index of the year for WoW moves of +8.3bp/+29bp. On the week both Financials and Cyclicals widened by ~10bp while only Utils stayed anyway flat.
  • SXXP was -2.7% while SPX was -1.8% for WoW moves of -2.9% and -2.1% with Real Estate the only sector in Europe seeing notable WoW gains at +2.7%. €IG WoW movers included Bank of Valetta +11%, Philips +10%, Mcdonald’s +10%, American Tower +10%, Kellanova +10%, Worldline -17%, Air Lease -17%, Apollo -15%, SocGen -14%, Scor SE -14%.
  • SX5E futures are -2% while SPX futures are -2.4% as the equity rout continued in Asia Pac markets today where carry over recession fears from late last in US markets has been an on-going driver of sentiment as tech sensitive bourses see the largest falls. UST futures are higher today and trades at session's best, in line with broader risk moves.
  • Later the Fed’s Goolsbee and Daly speak and the senior loan officer survey is published. There are US & European July final composite/services PMIs and US services ISM.

Date

GMT/Local

Impact

Country

Event

05/08/2024

0700/0900

**

ES

Industrial Production

05/08/2024

0700/0300

*

TR

Turkey CPI

05/08/2024

0900/1100

**

EU

PPI

05/08/2024

1400/1000

***

US

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

05/08/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill

05/08/2024

1530/1130

*

US

US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill

05/08/2024

2100/1700

US

San Francisco Fed's Mary Daly

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