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EUR Market Wrap

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  • Bunds closed flat against low volumes, quiet macro and limited news flow. OIS markets currently pricing 66bp of cuts this year with full cuts priced for Sept and Dec and a half cut priced for Oct. August flash PMIs and ECB Q2 negotiated wages (both Thursday) will provide the next major regional cues for markets in weighing the likely pace of the ECB’s easing cycle.
  • Main/XO ended -0.9bp/-3bp at 53.1bp/291bp while €IG was flat (Corps -0.1bp, Fins +0.2bp) and €HY was -2bp. Performance was broad-based in IG corps; Utils the only corps sector tighter MoM at -1.1bp vs. +6.8bp for €IG. $IG was -0.3bp (Corps -0.2bp, Fins -0.5bp), brining 3m underperformance to -2.7bp/flat.
  • SXXP ended +0.6% while SPX was +1% for WoW moves of close to +5%/+3%. €I movers include CK Hutchison +5%, Toyota -3%, NN Group -3%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are flat. US Treasury futures have been largely rangebound overnight, volumes have been slightly below average. The RBA reiterated that rates are likely to remain on hold for an extended period.
  • Later the Fed’s Bostic and Barr speak, and the August Philly Fed non-manufacturing index is released. Final July euro area CPI and Q2 negotiated wages as well as Canada’s July CPI print.

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
20/08/20240600/0800**DEPPI
20/08/20240730/0930***SERiksbank Interest Rate Decison
20/08/20240800/1000**EUEZ Current Account
20/08/20240900/1100***EUHICP (f)
20/08/20240900/1100**EUConstruction Production
20/08/20241100/0700***TRTurkey Benchmark Rate
20/08/20241230/0830***CACPI
20/08/20241230/0830**USPhiladelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/08/20241255/0855**USRedbook Retail Sales Index
20/08/20241530/1130*USUS Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
20/08/20241845/1445USFed Governor Michael Barr
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  • Bunds closed flat against low volumes, quiet macro and limited news flow. OIS markets currently pricing 66bp of cuts this year with full cuts priced for Sept and Dec and a half cut priced for Oct. August flash PMIs and ECB Q2 negotiated wages (both Thursday) will provide the next major regional cues for markets in weighing the likely pace of the ECB’s easing cycle.
  • Main/XO ended -0.9bp/-3bp at 53.1bp/291bp while €IG was flat (Corps -0.1bp, Fins +0.2bp) and €HY was -2bp. Performance was broad-based in IG corps; Utils the only corps sector tighter MoM at -1.1bp vs. +6.8bp for €IG. $IG was -0.3bp (Corps -0.2bp, Fins -0.5bp), brining 3m underperformance to -2.7bp/flat.
  • SXXP ended +0.6% while SPX was +1% for WoW moves of close to +5%/+3%. €I movers include CK Hutchison +5%, Toyota -3%, NN Group -3%.
  • SX5E/SPX futures are flat. US Treasury futures have been largely rangebound overnight, volumes have been slightly below average. The RBA reiterated that rates are likely to remain on hold for an extended period.
  • Later the Fed’s Bostic and Barr speak, and the August Philly Fed non-manufacturing index is released. Final July euro area CPI and Q2 negotiated wages as well as Canada’s July CPI print.

DateGMT/LocalImpactFlagCountryEvent
20/08/20240600/0800**DEPPI
20/08/20240730/0930***SERiksbank Interest Rate Decison
20/08/20240800/1000**EUEZ Current Account
20/08/20240900/1100***EUHICP (f)
20/08/20240900/1100**EUConstruction Production
20/08/20241100/0700***TRTurkey Benchmark Rate
20/08/20241230/0830***CACPI
20/08/20241230/0830**USPhiladelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index
20/08/20241255/0855**USRedbook Retail Sales Index
20/08/20241530/1130*USUS Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill
20/08/20241845/1445USFed Governor Michael Barr