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EUR Markets Unwilling To Price Less than 125bp Of '24 ECB Cuts

STIR

ECB-dated OIS has been unwilling to sustain any moves pricing less than 125bp of cuts for ’24 (equating to a 25bp cut at 5/7 remaining '24 monetary policy meetings), with session extremes of ~124bp registered on that front, before a move back to ~128bp as of typing. The U.S. ISM services survey and final reading of the S&P Global equivalent print provide the next macro inputs.

ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Mar-243.872-3.4
Apr-243.748-15.8
Jun-243.497-40.9
Jul-243.261-64.5
Sep-243.019-88.7
Oct-242.826-108.0
Dec-242.628-127.8
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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