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EUR On More Stable Footing Pre-ECB

FOREX
  • EUR vols remain well elevated ahead of the ECB decision later today, with markets split down the middle on whether the ECB stick to guidance of a 50bps hike, or a slower 25bps step today.
  • An overnight EURUSD straddle breaks even on a swing of ~90pips - making for the largest premium since the mid-December Fed and ECB meetings. Yesterday's currency volumes were pretty fearsome: M3 EUR futures saw over 350k contracts trade for the first time this year making for cumulative daily activity of over 50% above average.
  • The greenback is softer against most others, with the shoring of concerns surrounding Credit Suisse helping prop up sentiment across the board. This week's volatility continues to make its presence felt, however, evident in very shallow bounce for EUR/USD and GBP/USD off the Wednesday lows.
  • NZD is the poorest performer in G10, with pressure following Q4 GDP printed, which came in below expectations at -0.6% Q/Q and much weaker than the RBNZ forecast of +0.7%.
  • Outside of the ECB decision, weekly US jobless clams, import/export price indices and the housing starts/building permits releases for February.
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