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EUR/RUB Teeters on Key Support going Back to September 2020

RUSSIA
  • EUR/RUB continues to trend lower in July/August as divergences between ECB and CBR policy become more stark as traders chase RUB with inflation showing signs of moderation amid the central bank's tightening cycle
  • RUB has gained +5.77% against the EUR YTD, and continues to firm as the policy divergence becomes more entrenched with the ECB being decidedly more dovish than the majority of its DM peers while Russia ranks among the most hawkish EM central banks.
  • Moreover, upside pressure on commodities with oil trading in the $65-78 zone has also helped boost demand for RUB assets
  • The cross tested the 86.00 level in June, but failed to consolidate gains below the level , retracing back higher towards the 100dma at 89.00 before returning to 86.00 in August – remaining pegged below the 50dma
  • A move below the bear trigger at 86.7523 opens up a more comprehensive move lower towards lateral support from March-April 2020 at 84.1124 and 82.9122


MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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