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EUR Strength Falters, Markets Pre-Position for CPI

FOREX
  • EUR has been unable to maintain the strength seen through the Wednesday close, with EUR/USD fading off the early Asia-Pac session high at 1.0989. This has seen prices fade through the morning to dip back below 1.0975 and ease off the sharp rally through yesterday's WMR fix.
  • Resultingly, EUR is the poorest performer in G10 ahead of the NY crossover, with the much-watched strength in EUR/JPY fading after a print at 160.01. Data and newsflow has been light and/or ineffective, leaving markets to pre-position ahead of the CPI print later today.
  • NZD trades to the better, but the daily gains have made little dent in the broader NZD/USD chart. The subsequent retracement in EUR/NZD tips prices off the YTD high posted yesterday at 1.7639, and the sharply negative trend in the 50-dma points to near-term downward momentum. Cross has so far stopped dead on 1.7541, the 38.2% retracement for the Dec - Jan upleg, opening 1.7511 intraday, ahead of 1.7443 and the bear trigger of 1.7383.
  • US CPI data takes focus going forward, with markets expecting headline Y/Y to tick higher to 3.2%, while Core Y/Y slows to 3.8% from 4.0%. Supercore trend rates are likely to remain very strong at 4% annualized handles, but the data may be treated with caution as differences in methodology have seen core PCE at notably weaker rates in recent months.
  • Outside of CPI, ECB's Vujcic takes part in an MNI videoconference at 1400GMT/0900ET, with Fed's Mester & Barkin and ECB's Lagarde also set to make appearances.
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