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EUR/USD Needs Break of $1.2159 to Boost Upside Hopes

EUR
MNI (London)
  • EUR/USD recovered Friday off a late Asia low of $1.2095, rose through the European morning to $1.2156 in early NY.
  • Rate dropped to $1.2125 ahead of the month-end 1600GMT fix, recovered to $1.2153 before rate basically between $1.2130-40 through to the week/month close.
  • Risk was back in favour into Asia as traders reacted to reports that US President Biden to meet 10 GOP Senators today to discuss an alternative proposal for a COVID fiscal relief package.
  • EUR/USD edged to $1.2145 into the Tokyo open only to be knocked back to $1.2120 as the single currency came under pressure from weekend European press reports criticising the European Commission's handling of the COVID vaccine procurement/roll out (Die Zeit suggesting it was the best advert for Brexit)
  • Rate settled between $1.2125/35 through the balance of the session awaiting Europe's influence.
  • Friday's failure to push above $1.2159(76.4% $1.2190-1.2054) has kept upside progress in check, a break needed to boost recovery hopes and open a move toward $1.2190(Jan22 high-see MNI Techs below). Whilst rate holds below $1.2159 provides potential for another pullback with support at $1.2120 ahead of $1.2095/80.
  • Germany Retail Sales 0700GMT ahead of final EZ Mfg PMI releases, Spain at 0815GMT through to EZ at 0900GMT. EZ employment 1000GMT. US Mfg PMI 1445GMT followed by Mfg ISM at 1500GMT. Fed Bostic and Rosengren speak at 1900GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD continues to consolidate. A softer tone remains in place though with the focus on the Jan 18 low of 1.2054. A break would signal a resumption of the down leg that started off the Jan 6 high. This would pave the way for a move towards 1.2011, Sep 1 high and the psychological 1.2000 handle. A move below 1.2000 would open 1.1976, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of 1.2190, Jan 22 high is required to reinstate a bullish theme.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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