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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
EUR
- EUR/USD implied vols are edging higher on the back of the poor PMI data, with the 1m contract (capturing the next ECB rate decision on September 14th) narrowing in on 7.427 vol points - the highest level since mid-May.
- The moves coincide with the pull lower in Sept ECB pricing - which shed ~4bps to dip implied pricing for a 25bps hike at the next meeting back below 50% - but most importantly signal the risk and uncertainty around the ECB's next policy move.
- For EUR/USD spot, price remains anchored by the most sizeable expiry for today's NY cut: E2.1bln set to roll off at 1.0800 - brought into range by the poor services PMIs. That strike also coincides with sizeable support ahead: the 200-dma crosses at 1.0799 - a level markets haven't broken below since mid-2021, which helped presage the ~12 month downtrend in the pair.
Figure 1: Markets haven't broken below 200-dma since mid '21
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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