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CEE FX: EUR Weakness Weighs on CE3 FX But Moves Relatively Subdued

CEE FX
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Price action across CE3 has been generally subdued during Monday trade, with PLN leading losses among its regional peers (EURHUF: +0.1%; EURCZK: +0.15%). Global and regional newsflow has been unsurprisingly muted given the proximity to the Christmas market closures. Nevertheless, ongoing uncertainty in French politics sees the EUR trade softer on the session, with weakness in the single currency likely accounting for the moderate weakness in HUF, PLN and CZK. Full technical updates for EURHUF and EURPLN below:

  • A bear cycle in EURPLN remains in play. The cross has recently breached the 50-day EMA and traded through 4.2812, a retracement level. Last week’s activity also resulted in a print below 4.2520, the Sep 25 low and a key support, a clear breach of which would open 4.2471, the May 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 4.2791, the 20-day EMA.
  • The trend condition in EURHUF is unchanged and bullish. Resistance at 415.54, the Nov 29 high, has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, paving the way for gains towards 418.50, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘22 - Jun ‘23 bear cycle. Support to watch is 408.23, the 50-day EMA.
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Price action across CE3 has been generally subdued during Monday trade, with PLN leading losses among its regional peers (EURHUF: +0.1%; EURCZK: +0.15%). Global and regional newsflow has been unsurprisingly muted given the proximity to the Christmas market closures. Nevertheless, ongoing uncertainty in French politics sees the EUR trade softer on the session, with weakness in the single currency likely accounting for the moderate weakness in HUF, PLN and CZK. Full technical updates for EURHUF and EURPLN below:

  • A bear cycle in EURPLN remains in play. The cross has recently breached the 50-day EMA and traded through 4.2812, a retracement level. Last week’s activity also resulted in a print below 4.2520, the Sep 25 low and a key support, a clear breach of which would open 4.2471, the May 28 low. On the upside, resistance to watch is 4.2791, the 20-day EMA.
  • The trend condition in EURHUF is unchanged and bullish. Resistance at 415.54, the Nov 29 high, has been pierced. A clear break would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, paving the way for gains towards 418.50, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct ‘22 - Jun ‘23 bear cycle. Support to watch is 408.23, the 50-day EMA.