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EURCZK Breaks Below 25 Support

CZECHIA
  • This morning, Czech Foreign Minister Bek said that Czech Republic is seeking stronger ties with EU members and avoid political uncertainty as its CEE neighbors.
  • We have seen that the on-going dispute between Hungary/ Poland and the EU has been weighing on the domestic currencies in recent month
  • Last week, the CNB decided to raise its benchmark rate more than expected to 3.75% (pre-GFC highs) to continue its fight against inflation.
  • With inflation expected to remain elevated longer than previously estimated, the terminal rate could be reviewed to the upside (above 4%).
  • However, the uncertainty over the economic outlook combined with the sharp increase in ST rates amid aggressive CNB tightening could weigh on the economic activity in the medium term.
  • One positive thing about the aggressive hike is that it will continue to support CZK against major crosses (i.e. EUR) and therefore help anchor inflation expectations.
  • EURCZK keeps trending following the CNB decision and broke below the 25 level this week; next key support to watch on the downside stands at 24.77 (Feb 2020 low).
  • CZK is the 'less risky' currency among the CEE region, therefore CZK crosses (HUF, PLN) could continue to reach new all time highs.

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