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EURHUF Briefly Trades Above 400.00 Level and 200 DMA/20-day EMA

HUNGARY
EURHUF (+0.20%) extended its recent gains, briefly trading to a high of 400.77 today, above the 200 DMA/ 20-day EMA at 400.21/400.51. A clear break of these levels, as well as the 400.80 Monday high, will strengthen the current trend. HUF sits at the bottom of the CEEMEA FX scorecard (EURPLN +0.24%; EURZAR +0.09%).
  • CPI data is on the docket on Friday (Exp. +25.8% Y/Y; +3.0% M/M). A strong print, in addition to a poor IP and trade balance data release earlier this week, could provide further weakness to the forint as real rates become more negative and paint a stagflationary outlook of the Hungarian economy.
  • Sell-side analysts see HUF volatility in the medium-term, partly due to an ongoing bout with the EU over frozen funds. Though comments from the Finance Ministry yesterday seemingly pushed back the potential date of receiving funds from March to June at the latest, Hungary may utilize veto power when EU member states vote to extend sanctions on Russia in order to guarantee payment.
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