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EURHUF Operating Close to Recent Lows

HUF
EURHUF is re-approaching its intraday low at 377.39, down 0.15% on the day. Today’s low closely matches Friday’s low of 377.23, its lowest since Nov 29, with price still below key short-term support at 378.22, the Dec 14 low. A sustained move lower could expose the mid-November lows just above 375.00. Stronger-than-expected retail sales data (-5.4% y/y vs. -6.2% expected) may be facilitating HUF outperformance at the margins, as slightly lower US yields on a spate of UST block buying support the wider EM basket.
  • Looking ahead, CPI data on Jan 12 is the next key local release. Analysts see headline inflation declining from +7.9% y/y in November to +5.9% in December. The continuation of favourable inflation developments will likely facilitate the 75bp base rate cut pace to be maintained by the next NBH at its next meeting on Jan 30.
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