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UK: Week Ahead

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EURHUF Partially Pares Monday’s Gains Ahead of NBH

HUF
EURHUF is trading 0.25% in the red at typing and has now pulled back ~0.6% from yesterday’s highs of 385.77. The forint is the strongest performer in the EMEA region so far today despite continued push back from ECB officials over market pricing of rate cuts in 2024 and little change in global risk appetite overall.
  • Price yesterday broke above 383.55, the Dec 12 high, and sits just below that level this morning. The break higher undermines the recent bearish theme and instead strengthens a developing bullish trend. A continuation higher would open 386.29, the Oct 25 high.
  • Attention turns to the NBH rate decision this afternoon (decision at 1300GMT, press statement and inflation, GDP forecasts at 1400GMT) where a 75bp cut is the unanimous consensus among sell-side given the central bank’s “cautious” stance. Our preview can be found here.
  • Sell-side expectations corroborate with an exclusive piece from our policy team yesterday - MNI understands that the National Bank of Hungary will be keen to cut rates as quickly as possible in a way consistent with the return of inflation to its 3% target in a timely manner, but that financial stability will be a key consideration for monetary policy despite political pressure to ease more quickly.
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