EURHUF Recovers After Hitting Lowest Level Since Feb

EURHUF is trading 0.25% higher this morning as bullish forint momentum stalls. The forint had been supported by broad greenback weakness over the past week following last week’s FOMC decision, but a more stable USD index this week is likely accounting for the moderate weakness noted across EM FX. For EURHUF, the cross has recovered from its earlier low of 388.22 – its lowest level since Feb 23

• Yesterday, the cross closed below the 100-DMA and briefly pierced the Apr 05 low of 388.34 but has since returned back above both of those levels. A clear break of the latter is needed to reinstate a bearish theme and could signal scope for a sustained move lower towards the Feb 22 low of 386.39
• Last week, PLNHUF pierced below the 100-DMA for the first time since November 2023. Since then, the cross has recovered ~0.5%, sitting close to flat on the day at typing at 90.21. The 100-DMA intersects at 89.90
• Looking ahead, industrial production data for March will cross tomorrow (Est: -0.6% y/y) while CPI data provides the highlight of the week on Friday (Est: +3.7% y/y; Prior: +3.6%). Foreign minister Szijjarto said yesterday that Hungary plans to sign at least 16 agreements with China during President Xi Jinping’s three-day visit from Wednesday.