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EURHUF Trades Lower Following Recent Bounce, Despite Disappointing PMI

HUNGARY
EURHUF is trading 0.25% lower on the day, countering the short-term trend of four consecutive higher closes. This puts HUF at the top of the CEEMEA leaderboard. Despite the bounce seen in the past few days, EURHUF trend conditions remain technically bearish, reinforced by last week’s move lower to an 8-month low.
  • The break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend, turning attention to 384.54, the 1.00 projection of the Oct 13 - Nov 10 - Dec 12 price swing. Initial resistance is seen at 393.94, the 20-day EMA. This year’s price action has seen HUF YTD carry return outperform that of all of its other CEEMEA peers, with investors continuing to seek the generous HUF profile as optimism grows that EU funding will be secured by June.
  • Local stocks have traded lower again today, but nevertheless sits close to its 9-month highs. Similar optimism is seen in local bonds with 10Y yields down 10bp (though well within recent ranges), reflecting the general risk-on market sentiment and strong performance in EM assets so far this year.
  • This morning, Hungary's manufacturing PMI fell to 55.0 in January (Exp: 58.0) from a downwardly revised 59.3 in December, while trade balance data showed a widening deficit from EUR1.28b in October to EUR1.42b in November. There is little else in the way of domestic news flow driving markets today, with focus turning to the Fed later this evening.
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