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Euribor Futures Extend Lower Following Continued Fed Repricing & German IP

STIR

Euribor futures are -1.0 to -5.0 through the blues, with continued Fed repricing and stronger-than-expected German industrial production noted.

  • Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional calendar, although US CPI (Wednesday) will also be closely watched.
  • With no expectations for an ECB rate cut this time out, communication ahead of the presumptive June rate cut will be the key focus.
  • Our policy team’s latest sources piece portrayed an ECB that is divided over guidance as it nears the first cut of the cycle (see here).
  • ECB-dated OIS contracts price 85bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24, and 23bps through the June meeting.
  • The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence headlines today’s regional calendar.



  • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Apr-243.900-0.7
    Jun-243.676-23.1
    Jul-243.531-37.6
    Sep-243.349-55.8
    Oct-243.227-68.0
    Dec-243.060-84.7
    Jan-252.944-96.3
    Mar-252.810-109.7
    Source: MNI/Bloomberg



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