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Euribor futures hit after Spain CPI print

EURIBOR
  • The whole Euribor strip is down around 5-7 ticks on the Spanish inflation beat (HICP rising from 7.6%Y/Y to 9.8%Y/Y, 1.4ppt higher than consensus expectations). This adds to the small downward moves we had seen overnight.
  • Note that we also saw a high print from the German state of North Rhine Westphalia this morning at 2.7%m/m (the comparable national German print is forecast at 1.6%M/M, with HICP expected at 1.9%M/M / 6.8%Y/Y).
  • Given the NRW and Spanish prints, there will be increased market focus on the other German states to report higher CPI.
  • Whites down 1.0-8.5 ticks on the day, Reds down 9.5-11.0 ticks at writing. 64bp now priced in for 2022 (just over 2.5 25bp hikes).

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