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Euribor Futures Little Changed As Markets Await US CPI, ECB Decision

STIR

Euribor futures are little changed through the blues, with global core FI markets trading in tight ranges overnight. The Z4 contract trades around the Feb 29 low at typing.

  • Markets remain focused on tomorrow’s US CPI report and Thursday’s ECB decision.
  • ECB implied rates drifted higher into yesterday’s close and remain roughly around those levels, with OIS currently pricing 83bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 (around 5bp less than implied at the end of last week) and 22bps through the June meeting (about 1bp less).
  • MNI's preview of Thursday's ECB meeting was published today (PDF). With limited expectations of the ECB changing tack ahead of a presumptive June cut, any adjustment to the official communication this week would represent a minor surprise.
  • Today’s regional calendar is light, headlined by the ECB’s Bank Lending Survey at 0900GMT/1000CET
Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
Apr-243.907-0.1
Jun-243.686-22.1
Jul-243.542-36.5
Sep-243.362-54.5
Oct-243.240-66.7
Dec-243.073-83.4
Jan-252.970-93.7
Mar-252.838-106.9
Source: MNI/Bloomberg
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