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Euribor Futures Off Highs As Europe Digests Israeli Counter

STIR

Euribor futures are -0.5 to +2.5 through the blues, after Israel conducted missile attacks on Iran overnight.

  • The move has been limited by reports that nuclear facilities in Iran were not damaged, while Fox News noted it was the strike was limited in scope, per US officials.
  • ECB-dated OIS remain within yesterday’s ranges, pricing 77bps of cuts through the remainder of ’24 and 22bps through the June meeting.
  • The hawkish leaning Kazaks struck a cautious tone re: declaring a victory against inflation earlier this morning, while the dovish Panetta once again expressed support for a June cut yesterday evening (in line with the broader GC consensus).
  • Today’s regional data calendar is limited. The Bundesbank’s Nagel is scheduled after hours, though he has already appeared several times this week and his hawkish bias is well-known.


    • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jun-243.685-22.4
    Jul-243.564-34.5
    Sep-243.392-51.7
    Oct-243.293-61.6
    Dec-243.142-76.7
    Jan-253.055-85.4
    Mar-252.939-97.0
    Apr-252.869-104.1
    Source: MNI/Bloomberg. 2025 dates are estimated.
    HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News

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