Euribor Futures Off Lows Alongside Wider Core FI

Euribor futures are -1.0 to +1.5 ticks through the blues, off lows as core FI rallies in early European trade (see our earlier comment for a potential driver of the uptick).

• Contracts nonetheless remain within yesterday’s ranges.
• ECB-dated OIS price 67bps of cuts through year end (vs 66bps yesterday afternoon).
• Comments from the EBC’s Villeroy offered little new, reaffirming the likelihood of a first ECB rate cut in June.
• OIS continue to discount a ~90% probability of a 25bps cut through the June meeting.
• U.S. CPI headlines today’s global macro calendar at 1330BST, with the Q1 Eurozone preliminary GDP print also due this morning.
• Scheduled ECB speakers include Rehn, Muller, Villeroy and Makhlouf, though the topics of those speeches don’t appear to focus on broader ECB policy.