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Euribor Strip Firms On Soft EZ Inflation Indications and Dovish Fed-Speak Yesterday

STIR

The Euribor strip firms alongside global core FI markets, as dovish Fed-speak yesterday afternoon continues to reverberate alongside soft inflation data out of the Eurozone.

  • Recent moves have seen ECB-dated OIS contracts again price over 100bps of cuts by the December 2024 meeting (up from just over 80bps at the start of this week).
  • Most strength is seen in the Reds, which are 5.5 ticks higher at typing. The Dec '24 contract trades at its strongest since June at an implied rate of 2.95%.
  • Current tracking from German state-level inflation data suggests downside risks to the national consensus, while Spanish CPI undershot expectations on headline and core components.
  • Yesterday's impetus came as Fed Governor Waller - an influential member of the FOMC - brought up the idea of US rate cuts in the coming months to maintain the level of real rates.
  • The remainder of today's docket sees sentiment data from the European Commission at 1000GMT and the national German CPI print at 1300GMT.

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