Euribor Strip Rallies Further, Led By Bonds; ECB-Cut Pricing Holds

The Euribor strip is mostly firmer following the overnight/early Tuesday strength in core global FI markets, sitting flat to +7.5 ticks firmer through the blues. The blues lead the move higher.

• An overnight bid in JGBs and softer-than-expected wage data out of the UK have provided the most meaningful supportive factors thus far.
• Otherwise, headline flow has been light with participants looking toward US CPI this afternoon and the Fed/BoE/ECB on Weds/Thurs.
• The ECB-dated OIS strip indicates no change in rates at Thursday’s meeting. Further out, the first 25bp cut is more than fully priced come the end of the April 2024 meeting (~35bps of cuts showing), while there are ~138bps of cuts priced through 2024 on the whole (dovish extremes of ~150bp of cuts were briefly seen last week).
• The domestic calendar is relatively light for the remainder of today, although both the German and Eurozone ZEW surveys are set to cross.