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EURMXN Slumps To Lowest Level Since 2015 Following ECB & US Data

MEXICO
  • Impressive moves on Thursday for EURMXN which has declined 1.00%, extending trend lows and reaching the lowest level seen for the cross since late 2015 earlier in the session.
  • The single currency has been under pressure throughout the session with the latest commentary from ECB President Lagarde refusing to provide a firm indication on the committee’s bias going forward, expressing the view that September’s decision is very much data dependent.
  • The move lower for EURMXN was amplified by a strong growth report from the US, which provided further support to the soft landing thesis, potentially providing a peripheral boost to Mexico’s growth prospects.
  • Underpinning the ongoing outperformance for the peso is a central bank policy rate at 11.25% and an intention to keep rates at this level for the majority of 2023, compared to some regional peers who are likely to start cutting imminently (on Friday in the case of Chile).
  • EURMXN touched as low as 18.3662 and it is worth noting there is no major support levels for the cross until 17.4573, the December 2015 lows.
  • For USDMXN, the pair traded within close proximity to fresh trend lows around 16.70 before the latest turnaround for major equity indices has supported a solid recovery off the lows. Attention will remain on 16.6946, the Jul 18 low. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs.
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